08 April 2013

Consumer Electricity Tariff - Need is for a Long Term Vision - Eng Parakrama Jayasinghe

08th April 2013,By Eng Parakrama Jayasinghe


Energy Security is within our grasp!

What is needed is the courage to grab it.


The current mire
  • The tariff is the highest in the region
  • The cross subsidies cause dissatisfaction
  • The CEB continues to lose money every year
  • There is no solution in sight
  • World energy trends are ignored
Who pays for the subsidies?
  • The electricity bill may seem low with the subsidies
  • But the Billions of deficit is covered by public funds – that is all of us
  • The real beneficiaries are the Oil and Coal suppliers and their local agents
Who is responsible?
  • We all are paying for the cardinal sin of believing the myths of cheap electricity round the corner and abdicating our responsibility to speak out.
  • The latest is Coal power at Rs 7.50 according to the Minister when the fuel price alone per unit is about Rs 7.00
  • Many excuses are offered but !
  • Those in authority has not been able to offer a viable solution and have let the country down
  • It is time for the consumers to make a stand
  • But the solution is not to expect more and more subsidies

How the high tariff should have worked - The Rice Story Vs The Electricity Story





































The problem of Peak Load
  • The current generation capacity is enough to meet the average demand. ( 3100 MW Vs 2100 )
  • New coal plants are proposed to meet the additions to peak load ignoring the ever increasing price of coal
  • Indigenous alternatives are not even considered as candidates in the planning
The way out

The tariff policy must have the objectives of :-
  • Time based target for limiting fossil fuel usage to a minimum
  • Do not build new coal plants to meet the peak load  demand – there is enough capacity for many years to come to meet the average demand
  • Promote self generation at least during peak hours to avoid the need for any more coal plants
Recommendations
  • Impose limits on total generation cost  for the coming years.  The current expectation that what ever amount CEB spends have to be recovered from consumers is untenable and unsustainable. The expectation that the fuel surcharge can be removed with termination of oil based power is a fallacy as the coal prices too are moving up
  • Phase out the subsidies gradually
  • Offer time of day tariff to all segments – GP 1 and HP 1 to start with this year
  • Make the peak time tariff cost reflective and the off peak tariff low enough to incentivize self generation
  • Provide additional incentives for self generation using indigenous resources

Daily Load Curve – Up to 2007
 















Predicted Daily Load Curve - From 2007 to 2026
















Fossil Fuels Price Movement
















Related Info :

Cost Relective Tariffs for Large Consumers to Encourage Self Generation by Indigenous Sources to Cover Part of Their Requirements. Reduced Burden on CEB May Help Do Away with Coal Power Plants - Eng Parakrama Jayasinghe

Sri Lanka Should Reduce Peak Power Demand and Trim Most Expensive 5pct of Energy to Eliminate Losses at CEB - LirneAsia, a Regional Think Tank

Sri Lanka's Power Monopoly Draws Fire at Public Hearing on Proposed Tariff Hike. Costs Claimed by CEB are Murky and Efficiencies of Plants are not Independently Audited

Electricity Tariff Hike - Industries Get Biggest Subsidy, Hotels Marginally Subsidized & General Purpose Customers to Pay in Excess of Costs - an Analysis by the Regulator

Electricity Tariff Increase - First, Operate Hydro Plants in an Optimum Manner, Improve Plant Efficiencies, Cut Losses and Switch to more Economical Fuel

Sri Lanka Combined Cycle Power Plants more Expensive than Diesel Engines - Information on Power Sector not Available in the Past Now Coming Out

07 April 2013

Cost Reflective Tariffs for Large Consumers to Encourage Self Generation by Indigenous Sources to Cover Part of Their Requirements. Reduced Burden on CEB May Help Do Away with Coal Power Plants - Eng Parakrama Jayasinghe

22nd March 2013, By Eng Parakrama Jayasinghe

From written submission to Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka in reference to the call for public comments on the proposed consumer tariff to be applied form the 1st of April 2013. The author, Eng Parakrama Jayasinghe, is the Hony. President  of Bio Energy Association of Sri Lanka,  a Member of the Board of Directors – Sustainable Energy Authority, and a Member of the Board of Directors – NERD Centre.

Preliminary

Achieving a stable and sustainable energy supply, as well as a tariff structure affordable to all segments of consumers requires a long term vision and strategies, applied year by year on a consistent basis.

Subsidies provided for maintaining a generation mix dominated by imported oil or coal is non sustainable and such subsides will only flow to the pockets of the oil and coal suppliers. The deficit run by the CEB is made good by the treasury which means that the supposedly low electricity bill is a myth.

Therefore the only lasting solution is to move towards a generation mix which is by far dominated by indigenous sources of energy as was the case prior to 1995, when 95 % of the generation was from major hydro. The tariff proposals should therefore have this long term goal and everyone must be ready to pay that extra amount now, to overcome the sad situation, created due to lack of proper vision in the past decades, so that we can move towards a more rational and secure energy system. Until such a situation is achieved it is to the advantage of both the CEB and the country to reduce the generation using fossil fuels either by CEB or the IPPs as much as possible.

Recommendations

  • The tariff system should be designed to promote maximizing the indigenous sources. The true cost of generation using oil or coal must be calculated without direct or indirect subsidies and state facilitation provided for such generation. Thus any subsidies given to the consumer is a conscious decision based on the true costs. Since such subsidies are not sustainable in the long run, this would encourage self generation by the high end consumers, thus lowering the burden on the CEB and the treasury.
  • The problem of managing the peak load is not addressed. The time of day metering facility should be extended on optional basis to the domestic consumers with a  demand of over 180 units per month and for the General Purpose GP 1 and Hotels HP 1 consumers. The price per unit during the peak hours should also be the true cost of the fossil fuel based generation, as the lower end users needs could have been met from the lower cost sources such as hydro already in place.
  • The tariff for the high end users should also be cost reflective.  They must be encouraged to use indigenous sources and install self generation to meet at least part of their requirements. This too will reduce the burden on the CEB and will be a means by which the consumers can reduce their electricity cost.
Back Ground for the Recommendations

The CEB is continuing to make losses due to

  • High Cost of Generation quoted as Rs 20.84 per KWh, average , but is likely to be much higher. The low cost of the major hydro capital cost of which have been paid up many years ago is the reason that the average unit cost is so low.
  • Sale of electricity at rates lower than the cost
This is not a sustainable situation and has to be arrested sooner than later. The deficit is covered by public funds. Therefore it is a fallacy to pretend that any of the consumers are receiving “cheap “ electricity. The burden of funding the deficit is carried by all Sri Lankans, now that we are nearly 100% grid connected, irrespective of the level of consumption.

Thus all Sri Lankans should be ready to accept the burden of an increase in the tariff, provided that plans are in place for a more sustainable future. 

Although the proportional increase of tariff for the lower end consumers has been portrayed as high percentage ( 59%) increase, even the increased tariff at Rs 6.25 (Rs. 5.00 per unit with the fuel adjustment of 25% ) is less than 25% of the current average cost of generation of Rs 20.84 Similar situations has existed for many years. The current increase to be paid is only about Rs 200.00 per month, far less than the amount paid for such luxuries as mobile phones. The CEB has quite correctly extended the grid to nearly 100 %  at costs far in excess of the returns that could be expected. This is a subsidy that is fair and proper so that all Sri Lankans are given access to electricity.

It is however not correct for the consumers to expect the energy at prices far less than the cost of generation.

Thus each unit consumed by this segment carries a subsidy of Rs 20.84-6.25 = Rs 14.59

Since the predicted generation mix is 50% thermal based on fossil fuels, this subsidy is in fact a means of subsidizing the suppliers of oil and coal and not the Sri Lankans at any level. This will worsen in the years to come with the contribution by fossil fuels increasing to over 75% as per the current long term generation plans.

Thus there has to be a concerted effort to change the generation mix to maximize the uses of hydro and other indigenous sources of energy. While this cannot be achieved in a year, the tariff policy in the current year and the years to come must be consistently designed to encourage this change continuously.

Contrary to the popular myth, the cost of indigenous energy is cheaper than that of coal power, touted as the cheapest source and promoted aggressively by the CEB, quoting totally erroneous figures and hiding the important elements of cost in coal power generation. The table below of the fuel costs alone for power generation using different fuels illustrates this fact.

•   Diesel 0.28l/kWh  @ Rs 117.00/l                Rs 32.76
•   Residual Oil 0.231 l/kWh @ Rs 67.00/l        Rs 15.41
•   Coal  0.39 kg/kWh @ Rs 17.92/kg             Rs 6.98
•   SRC Wood 1.0 kg/kWh @ Rs 4.50/kg        Rs 4.50    
•   Agro waste  2.0 kg/kWh @ Rs 2.50 /kg      Rs  5.00

Applying similar conditions , the balance costs on capital, O& M etc has to be similar for both coal and Wood, leading to a decidedly lower cost of generation using SRC wood.

The world price trends and the continually depreciating rupee pressured by the huge import bill on oil and coal will make this difference wider in the years to come.

This fact has been demonstrated by the use of the WASP program used by the CEB for the determination of the least cost  long term generation plan. Dendro has been included as the only source of firm energy from renewable sources, accepted by the CEB as a candidate. 

However the outcome of this analysis which clearly indicated Dendro as the least cost option, was newer published.

The cost of generation using Solar PV is coming down year by year.

Thus the only way the tariff can come down or at least be maintained at present levels is by changing the generation mix.

Also since the CEB appears to have no solution other than fossil fuels to meet the future demands which will drive the percentage contribution by indigenous sources even further, the change may have to come from investments on generation by others, mainly the private sector through NCRE.

The problem of the daily peak load

The long term generation plan of CEB is promoting large scale development of coal power plants. This is done only to be able to serve the peak load between 6.30 PM – 10.30 PM  , as even the current installed capacity is adequate to meet the average day time demand for many years to come.

However, the current generation  strategy  discourages  using the abundant solar energy , and perhaps even the wind resource, whichever is available during the off peak hours. The need to operate the coal power plants at near full capacity, even during the off peak hours, acts as a deterrent for the development of the indigenous and potentially cheaper sources.  The lack of interest in promoting the “net metering” concept is evidence of this.

However, there could be many individuals and organizations who would be willing to install self generation facilities, even using such non firm sources , to reduce the burden on the CEB to cater to the high demand over a few hours on a daily basis.

Therefore in order to promote such self generation and also to encourage use of such capacity , primarily during the peak hours, it is proposed that the time of day metering facility be made available to the domestic consumers who consume over 180 units per month and to the G P 1 and HP 1 categories of consumers.

This can be made optional at the beginning and made mandatory in the coming years.

A typical installation would be a 2 kW solar PV domestic installation with adequate battery storage to cater to the four hours of peak . The cost of such an installation could be recovered in less than four years based on current world market prices of PV systems.

The potential saving of the peak load capacity that needs to be provided by the CEB would be in the order of 500 MW by this change, by a  fraction of domestic consumers alone. The details of this calculation can be provided.

Self Generation by large Consumers

The CEB statistics indicate that 11% of the consumers are responsible for 60% of the total demand for electricity.

This is a potential segment where self generation could be promoted even during the off peak hours. In the past CEB was in the habit of calling on such consumers to use their diesel generators during the dry months with incentive payments. There is no reason why this promotion should not be continued, as there are indigenous sources with the potential for generation at much lower costs. The difficulties faced by the CEB and the government in finding the capital for adding new generation capacity can also be overcome by this means.  The proposed tariff structure should provide incentives for such consumers to move in this direction.

Related Info :

Sri Lanka Should Reduce Peak Power Demand and Trim Most Expensive 5pct of Energy to Eliminate Losses at CEB - LirneAsia, a Regional Think Tank

Sri Lanka's Power Monopoly Draws Fire at Public Hearing on Proposed Tariff Hike. Costs Claimed by CEB are Murky and Efficiencies of Plants are not Independently Audited

Electricity Tariff Hike - Industries Get Biggest Subsidy, Hotels Marginally Subsidized & General Purpose Customers to Pay in Excess of Costs - an Analysis by the Regulator

Sri Lanka Should Reduce Peak Power Demand and Trim Most Expensive 5pct of Energy to Eliminate Losses at CEB - LirneAsia, a Regional Think Tank

04th April 2013, www.lankabusinessonline.com

Sri Lanka should push harder on cutting peak power demand as 'average' costs are meaningless and trimming the most expensive 5.0 percent of energy has the potential to eliminate losses at Ceylon Electricity Board, a think tank has said.

About 17 percent of the generation costs of state-run Ceylon Electricity Board went towards the most expensive last five percent of energy purchased, LirneAsia, a regional think tank said in public consultation called by the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka.

The CEB also spent 17 percent of its costs on the least expensive energy, which amounted to 50 percent of the total energy purchased.

"Thus, if energy purchases could be reduced by 5 per cent, it is possible that the losses of the CEB could be eliminated," LirneAsia chair Rohan Samarajiva said.

"This is the importance of managing demand. Not all the demand needs to be reduced in absolute amounts. Shifting it to off-peak, (when the sole base load coal plant, producing inexpensive energy is asked to back down) could also provide substantial relief.

"If peak demand is lowered, the overall costs of supplying electricity will be reduced."

'Average' Cost

Costs range from less than 5.0 rupees a unit of electricity for hydro to around 30 rupees for thermal energy. Average costs have been determined by the regulator at around 20 rupees based on a tariff proposal filed by the CEB, after disallowing at least three thermal plants.

Sri Lanka CEB cost curve

 In a power grid where different sources of energy have different costs, 'average' costs are meaningless and are simply driven by peaks and which types of plants are used and for how long.

"The cost models that underlie the tariff proposal are based on assumptions of levels of use that may change because of the radical redesign of the tariff structure," Samarajiva said.

"If demand is lower than projected, especially at the peak, it is possible that the proposed tariff will yield excessive earnings."

Some of the most expensive power is used during the late evening peak from around 7.00 to 9.00 pm local time, when households light up and demand goes up to 2000MegaWatts

The cheapest large hydros are also used during that time as peaking plants. Hydro is also vital as load following plants to balance generation with fluctuating demand, but the most expensive energy including gas turbines are switched on at that time.

The cost of delivering power at different times therefore is radically different.

Off-peak

 But from around midnight to early morning, when Sri Lanka's power demand plunges to about 1,000 MegaWatts, a 300MW coal plant is operated below full output to accommodate a rule that says a single plant should not be more than 20 percent of total load.

The rule has been put in place to prevent the grid from failing when a large plant goes out of the system. But sources at the CEB say the floor could now be improved to 25 percent or more with load management techniques which has been already developed.

Samarajiva said CEB could also set up a pump storage system, where late night and early morning coal power (where the incremental energy charge is around 8.30 rupees, compared to average costs of 20 rupees) water is pumped back to a reservoir.

Selling energy to India through a proposed cable could also achieve the same effect.

Sri Lanka has cascade reservoirs where such a pump storage system could be set up.

A flatter daily demand curve could substantially cut overall costs, bringing down average costs even with the existing plants.

Samarajiva says investments should be made in demand management. Investments in demand management could be the same as building completely new plants.

Smart Metering

Samarajiva said the proposed tariffs for 2013 where, households are charged at the highest rated block instead of slabs will give an incentive to conserve energy but CEB should communicate better through mass media and text messages to tell people how to save energy.

"In particular, targeted messages printed on the electricity bill of high-consumption households stating that they are paying X rupees more than similar households have proven to be effective in several countries," Samarajiva said.

"A redesigned and more informative electricity bill appears a necessity."

Smart meters where even domestic customers could benefit by shifting activity to off-peak cheaper power (such as running a washing machine cycle), should be promoted.

"For example, it should be mandated that CEB/LECO install smart meters in all new condominium towers with immediate effect," Samarajiva said.

"Next, it should be mandated that the distributors should install smart meters in at least 50% of currently-high-consumption households (possibly defined as those using above 180 units per month) within the next 24-36 months.

"Such metering would enable subtle, yet sophisticated programs that change consumer consumption patterns."

"More importantly, such meters would also enable more sophisticated policy solutions, such as time-of-day pricing and other alternative tariff structures that enable cost-reflective pricing in the future."

 CEB has already proposed low rates for the late night off-peak especially for industries, who could potentially operate a late night to morning production run.

Samarajiva said subsidies could be directed at those who most needed them, perhaps by increasing payments to the poorest Samurdhi receivers.

Related Info :

Sri Lanka's Power Monopoly Draws Fire at Public Hearing on Proposed Tariff Hike. Costs Claimed by CEB are Murky and Efficiencies of Plants are not Independently Audited

Electricity Tariff Hike - Industries Get Biggest Subsidy, Hotels Marginally Subsidized & General Purpose Customers to Pay in Excess of Costs - an Analysis by the Regulator

Electricity Tariff Increase - First, Operate Hydro Plants in an Optimum Manner, Improve Plant Efficiencies, Cut Losses and Switch to more Economical Fuel

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Sri Lanka's Power Monopoly Draws Fire at Public Hearing on Proposed Tariff Hike. Costs Claimed by CEB are Murky and Efficiencies of Plants are not Independently Audited

04th April 2013, www.lankabusinessonline.com

Costs claimed by Sri Lanka's power monopoly Ceylon Electricity Board are murky, the efficiency of expensive plants and other costs are not independently audited, respondents at a public hearing on a proposed tariff hike said.

Disallowing around 30 billion rupees from the tariff filing also raised more questions about cost transparency he said.

Siyambalapitiya said the inclusion of three retired power plants for dispatch in 2013 by the CEB, and PUCSL’s assumption that such energy can be provided by hydropower plants, were both irresponsible actions.

He said CEB's tariff methodology misinterpreted an established tariff methodology. A bulk supply account which was supposed to have been set up in 2011, which would make many costs transparent, was still not in existence.

Siyambalapitiya said the regulator should also have clawed back 13 billion rupees allowed in 2011. The claw back alone could cut the tariff by 6.0 percent.

He said transmission and distribution losses of both CEB had Lanka Electricity Company (LECO) had come down to 12 percent ahead of target for which they should be commended.

But the CEB's transmission unit had losses of 4.4 percent which was higher than the 3.0 percent target for 2012.

There was no independent calibration of transfer metres between transmission and distribution and also between generation and transmission and most were related parties.

Tilak Siyambalapitiya, a top energy sector expert said the basis on which power plants were to be used in 2013 (dispatch schedule) was unknown.

The dispatch schedule was not according to the tariff methodology required by the regulator but even if another methodology was used, it has not been disclosed, he told a hearing called by the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka.

The efficiency of the plants was not known, he told a public hearing on a proposed tariff hike called by the regulator. The actual heat rates were supposed to be tested by a certified technical auditor.

"Where are these tests?" he asked.

Sri Lanka's thermal plants have peculiar costs with combined cycle plants being more expensive than less efficient than smaller diesel plants.

Laxman Siriwardene, from Pathfinder, think tank said costs at the CEB; a state monopoly was not transparent.

He said the regulator itself has removed 15 billion rupees in costs and refused to allow three plants whose contracts had expired.

Siriwardene said while there was a principle that tariffs should be cost-reflective, there was no way to determine the actual costs. He said there was no information about other expenses of the CEB which had 17,000 employees.

Related Info :

Sri Lanka Hydro Power Generation Picks up Sharply in 2013

Electricity Tariff Hike - Industries Get Biggest Subsidy, Hotels Marginally Subsidized & General Purpose Customers to Pay in Excess of Costs - an Analysis by the Regulator

Electricity Tariff Increase - First, Operate Hydro Plants in an Optimum Manner, Improve Plant Efficiencies, Cut Losses and Switch to more Economical Fuel

Sri Lanka Combined Cycle Power Plants more Expensive than Diesel Engines - Information on Power Sector not Available in the Past Now Coming Out

HSBC Arranges $100mn Export Credit from Belgium to Etisalat to Expand Network with Equipment from Alcatel Lucent

0th April 2013, www.lankabusinessonline.com

HSBC said it had arranged a 100 million US dollar export credit from Belgium for Etisalat Sri Lanka to expand its network with equipment made by Alcatel-Lucent.

"The strong partnership with HSBC, ONDD and Alcatel-Lucent will now enable us to offer the best in technology and services to our customers."

He said Etisalat became the first operator to launch DC HSPA+ technology, to boost mobile broadband service in Sri Lanka.

The bank said it was the largest such deal so far in the country.

"Etisalat is a considerable force in the telecommunication industry in Sri Lanka, and we are pleased to have led this transaction to support their expansion plans..." Nick Nicolaou, chief executive officer HSBC Sri Lanka and Maldives said.

HSBC was sole arranger, sole lender and facility agent for the facility from ONDD, the export credit agency of Belgium.

HSBC had also arranged an additional 25 million US dollar facility in parallel to the export credit.

"Etisalat strongly believes in the growth potential of Sri Lanka and we want to support the ongoing development by providing the latest in technology to the country," chief executive officer Dumindra Ratnayaka, said.

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Altair, Sri Lanka’s Tallest Luxury Condominium, Construction Underway. Unique Tower Blocks Feature One Leaning on to the Other

03rd April 2013, www.island.lk

Construction work on Altair, Sri Lanka’s tallest luxury condominium, is on track with the completion of 100 of 288 piles targeted for March 2013, INDOCEAN Developers, the promoter of the iconic project said.

Announcing the milestone, the company said the four test piles, carried out at the Sir James Peiris Mawatha site overlooking the Beira Lake at 200 per cent of the design load, showed that each pile can successfully bear a load of 2,200 tons, which is twice the load required by the structural design.

"This kind of project demands vision, strength and determination," said Sushil Mohta, Director of INDOCEAN Developers (private) Ltd., who visited the site during the piling. "It’s about testing oneself, always pushing to the limit. That is why INDOCEAN went out and tested the piles to twice their designed capacity."

The Altair team that inspected the site also comprised of Directors Jugal Khetawat and Pradeep Sureka, the Structural Engineer Predrag Eror and the Vice President – Projects Iraklis Andreakis. "The structural integrity of all our projects is paramount among our values," Pradeep Sureka said.

INDOCEAN Director Jugal Khetawat added: "We recently completed Wind Tunnel Tests for Altair in London by the wind-engineering experts RWDI whose project portfolio includes the tallest buildings in the world, the Burj Khalifa, Taipei 101 and Petronas Tower."

Altair’s 288 driven piles will be connected to a raft foundation so as to distribute the building loads. The Piling Contractor for the project is San Piling, a sister company of the leading construction company Sanken Lanka. Piling work is expected to be complete by June this year.

Comprising of two tower blocks, one of which leans on to the other, Altair, with an address of 127, Sir James Peiris Mawatha, will rise to 68 stories, offering its 410 apartments spectacular views of the Beira Lake and the Indian Ocean. The building has been designed by the globally recognized celebrity architect Moshe Safdie. Besides its 1.5 million square feet of high-end eco-friendly living space, the development will also offer 40,000 square feet of up-market retail space.

INDOCEAN is a venture of South City Group, which brings together over 150 years of cumulative development experience. The Group has, till date, completed 10 million square feet of real estate developments worth more than USD 350 million and currently has 20 million square feet of space worth USD 1.1 billion under construction.

Pioneering large-scale urban developments, with the collaboration of international consultants and development professionals, is the track record of South City Group which has pledged to deliver a superior and landmark development for Sri Lankan and expatriate residents.

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National Equity Fund of NAMAL Pays Dividends for a Record 20 Years

03rd April 2013, www.island.lk

National Asset Management Limited (NAMAL), maintaining its continuous dividend payments, announced that the company’s flagship fund the National Equity Fund (NEF) paid a dividend of one rupee per unit to the Unit holders for the year ended 31st March 2013. NEF is the only Equity Fund to have made continuous dividend payments since its inception including the exigent times in the industry, NAMAL said in a statement.

Avancka Herat, Executive Director and Chief Investment Officer of NAMAL, stated that the fund outperformed the CSE All Share Price Index (ASPI) on an YTD, 12 months & 24 months by 5.51%, 9.44% and 17.99% and attributed this superior performance to timely asset allocation.
He further stated that the NEF which is classified as a Balanced Fund, was the best performing fund in its respective segment. The fund also achieved a CAGR of 14.71% on a dividend re investment basis since inception in December1991 to 28th February 2013. NEF was launched in 1991 and currently has Rs. 1.7 billion assets under management with annual dividend payouts being made at a historical average of Rs. 1.22 during the 20 year period.

"NAMAL is Sri Lanka’s first unit trust management company, having commenced operations in 1991, with a 20-year track record of successfully investing in the Sri Lankan equity and debt markets. NAMAL currently operates eight unit trusts including the flagship National Equity Fund and the only listed unit trust. Principal shareholders of NAMAL are Union Bank of Colombo PLC and DFCC Bank PLC."

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